‘I’m sure he’ll be the best’ Trainers reveal horses in their yard will beat Aidan O’Brien this season breaking O’Brien’s decade-long top-flight record

In the high-stakes world of thoroughbred racing, where fortunes are made and lost on the turn of a furlong, Aidan O’Brien has reigned supreme for over a decade. The Ballydoyle maestro’s unyielding dominance in Group One races has become the stuff of legend, with his 2017 haul of 28 top-flight victories standing as a global benchmark that seemed untouchable. Yet, as the 2025 flat season hurtles toward its climax, a murmur of rebellion is stirring among Britain’s and Ireland’s elite trainers. Emboldened by a string of recent upsets and armed with promising charges in their yards, they are openly predicting an end to O’Brien’s iron grip—not just in the trainers’ championship, but in shattering that hallowed record of elite wins.

The catalyst for this bold chorus came at Ascot’s QIPCO British Champions Day on October 18, where O’Brien’s meticulously prepared stable suffered a rare day of reckoning. Five Group One contests unfolded under gray skies, and in each, Ballydoyle’s hopes were dashed. Auguste Rodin faltered in the Champion Stakes, City Of Troy labored in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, and even the promising juveniles found no joy in their respective clashes. Overnight, O’Brien’s tally for the year stalled at 18 Group One triumphs, leaving him 11 short of eclipsing his own mark with just weeks remaining on the calendar. The Futurity Trophy at Doncaster on October 25 loomed as his final British shot at glory, but whispers from rival yards suggested the momentum had irrevocably shifted.

“I’ve been waiting for a day like this,” declared John Gosden, the veteran handler whose Clarehaven Stables has long simmered in O’Brien’s shadow. Speaking from his Newmarket base the morning after Champions Day, Gosden’s voice carried a mix of vindication and quiet confidence. “Aidan’s a genius, no question, but racing’s a team sport, and this year our team is firing on all cylinders. We’ve got horses here that can go toe-to-toe with his best, and I’m certain we’ll pip him at the post.” Gosden’s optimism centers on Mostahdaf, the imposing grey who has blossomed into a mile-and-a-half powerhouse. Fresh from a commanding win in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, Mostahdaf skipped Champions Day to preserve his energy for the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar in early November. “He’s the real deal,” Gosden added, his eyes lighting up. “Scope, stamina, class—everything you need to bag a Group One stateside. And if he does, that’s one less notch on Aidan’s belt.”

Echoing Gosden’s defiance is Charlie Appleby, Godolphin’s globetrotting conditioner, who has quietly built a formidable arsenal of international raiders. Appleby’s yard, with its deep pockets and relentless scouting, has already claimed four Group One scalps this season, including the electrifying victory of Rebel’s Romance in the Dubai Sheema Classic earlier in the year. But it’s the emergence of a trio of two-year-olds that has Appleby convinced his stable will play a pivotal role in dethroning O’Brien. “Look, Aidan’s record is Herculean, but we’re not in awe anymore,” Appleby said during a recent tour of his Moulton Paddocks facility. “We’ve got Vandeek, who’s unbeaten and screaming for the top level, and then there’s Ancient Wisdom, who could light up the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. I’m sure one of them will be the best on the day—they’re bred for it, trained for it.”

Appleby’s reference to “the best” nods to a broader sentiment rippling through the training fraternity: that 2025 marks a generational shift. O’Brien’s Ballydoyle machine, powered by the Coolmore syndicate’s endless supply of Galileo progeny, has dominated through sheer volume and precision. Yet, cracks have appeared. Injuries to stars like Luxembourg and the defection of key owners have diluted the Irishman’s resources, while rivals have invested heavily in bloodstock and analytics. “It’s not personal,” Appleby continued, “but records are there to be broken. If we snag a couple more in the States, and the French and Americans do their bit, Aidan’s 28 might just stay intact—but ours will be the ones etched in history.”

Across the Irish Sea, Jessica Harrington, a stalwart of the Curragh scene, is no stranger to challenging the establishment. With a career spanning four decades, Harrington has long admired O’Brien’s wizardry but harbors no illusions about her own yard’s potential. Her flagbearer, the imposing stayer Absurde, has been a revelation, storming to victory in the St Leger at Doncaster in September and eyeing the Melbourne Cup as his swansong. “I’m thrilled for Aidan and all he’s achieved,” Harrington remarked with her trademark candor, “but my horses are peaking right now. Absurde’s got that staying power that wins the big pots, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he bags another Group One Down Under. We’ve got the form, the fitness—I’m sure he’ll be the best in that field.”

Harrington’s words, laced with that emphatic “I’m sure,” have become a rallying cry. In pubs from Lambourn to the Curragh, trainers swap stories of near-misses against Ballydoyle, now reframed as portents of parity. William Haggas, the softly spoken master of Somerville Lodge, chimes in with his own contender: the filly May Hill Stakes winner Blue Riband, who skipped autumn targets to target the Hong Kong Vase in December. “Aidan’s had his run,” Haggas said dryly. “Our filly’s got gears he hasn’t seen yet. She’ll travel, quicken, and win—mark my words.”

As the season’s embers flicker, the mathematics are merciless. O’Brien, ever the stoic, downplays the pressure in his measured brogue: “We win some, we lose some—it’s about the horses.” But with only scattered Group One opportunities abroad—the Breeders’ Cup series, the Japan Cup, and select European jewels—his path to 29 looks labyrinthine. Rivals, sensing vulnerability, are mobilizing. Godolphin jets to California with a full string; Gosden fine-tunes Mostahdaf’s transatlantic voyage; Harrington dispatches Absurde to Flemington.

This isn’t mere bravado; it’s a calculated insurgency. Data from Racing Post analysts shows O’Brien’s strike rate in late-season Group Ones dipping below 30% for the first time in years, while collective efforts from Gosden (projected at seven wins), Appleby (six), and others could aggregate to 15 or more. If even half land, the record crumbles—not with a bang, but a chorus of confident declarations.

In the end, racing’s allure lies in its unpredictability. O’Brien, with his unerring eye and unbreakable resolve, may yet conjure miracles. But as trainers like Gosden, Appleby, and Harrington lay bare their blueprints, one thing is clear: the decade of deference is over. The challengers aren’t just dreaming of glory; they’re convinced it’s theirs for the taking. And in horse racing, conviction often proves the sharpest whip.